Posts Tagged ‘elections’

No Comment on Local Government Election Reform

Friday, February 5th, 2010

All provincial and federal public servants are supposed to be non-partisan during work hours. Most of them are free to do partisan activity in their free time. We’ve come a long way since 1960 when Dave Barrett had to get special permission to run, and even longer since 1899 when public servants weren’t allowed to vote in BC. I happen to be in one of the few positions that has a higher burden of non-partisanship (although that hasn’t been tested in court, as far as I know): I am expected to remain non-partisan in my private life.

The members of the Local Government Elections Task Force were all appointed by Cabinet. Apparently some people[who?] consider the Task Force to have a partisan slant. To maintain my squeaky-clean image, my employer asked me to remove my personal opinions from my post on the Task Force.

The impact of social media on the political status of public servants is an active area of research. Requests for interviews with me can be left in the comments.

Local Government Election Reform

Friday, January 29th, 2010

BC local government is made up of municipalities, regional districts, the Islands Trust, the Vancouver Park Board and school districts (the UBC Endowment Lands committees are advisory, not governing; First Nations governments represent off-reserve members so they’re not considered local).

[Redacted]

The Local Government Elections Task Force is developing a new model [for local government elections] and started soliticing feedback today.

[Redacted]

Detecting Election Fraud

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Benford’s Law says that if you take a list of numbers from certain processes, lots of them will start with “1″ and very few of them will start with a “9″. This is because we use a base-10 counting system, so if something is growing at a steady average rate it takes just as long to get to 2000 as it took to get to 1000. eg: 139, 253, 443, 463, 585, 745, 884, 1028, 1108, 1299, 1424, 1514, 1531, 1710, 1818, 2051*. The chances that you sample it when it starts with a “1″ are higher than the chance that you sample it when it starts with anything else.

Benford’s Law is good at detecting financial fraud because financial calculations have patterns that cause steady average grow: most importantly, multiplying quantities and prices. Since most electoral systems divide voters into equal-sized voting areas, the votes in each area don’t grow at a steady rate. So instead electoral analysts skip the first digit and apply Benford’s Law to the later digits in results.

This analysis assumes that votes for each candidate will grow at a steady rate. In other words, if you combine two voting areas, the results for each candidate should, on average, double. But representational democracies allocate representatives based on the regions precisely because that assumption is wrong.

Other election analysis assume that voters, when averaged together, act completely randomly. If that assumption is correct, I’m not sure why fraudulent elections are a bad thing. ;)

Statistical analysis to detect election fraud is a very new field. Much of the work is being done in the US, which means researchers have certain biases:

  • they don’t understand the boundaries of the places they’re analyzing
  • they have incentives to find fraud in the elections of America’s enemies
  • they have disincentives to find fraud in the elections of Western democracies (in particular it is taboo to analyze the 2000 Presidential election)
  • they assume divisive bipartisan politics

I’d love to see a paper where someone analyzes a real election known to be fraudulent rather than a simulation or at least applies a method to a large, broad sample of elections.

* I generated these using a uniform distribution from 0 to 200.

On Iran’s Voters List

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

BC’s voter turnout was 51% of eligible voters and 56% of registered voters. Yes, that’s sad, but it’s not the magic “less than 50%” that the media is reporting.

I have no problem that my favourite coffee shop and my favourite theatre troupe get the voter turn-out wrong: they just heard it from the media. And I understand why the media gets it wrong:

  1. it involves numbers, which journalists are notoriously bad at
  2. it’s a better story if you report it as under 50%

BC has one of the most accurate voters lists in the world, so the difference between eligible and registered voters is small. Our list is accurate because BC is one of the most developed places in the world: with land titles and integrated databases all over the place. And yet, BC registers plenty of people in conjunction with voting and our polling places occasionally run out of ballots (there are contingency plans).

How good do you think Iran’s voters list is? There are a lot of issues with the Iranian election, but saying it’s illegitimate because their voters list sucks is going too far. Besides, what are the chances the media got those numbers right when they can’t even read an Elections BC news release?

Election Polling Isn’t Supposed to be Helpful

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

Kennedy Stewart is an SFU Public Policy professor: I’d classify him as a sociologist of politics. He has a model that takes province-wide poll numbers and converts them into seats. The Tyee has an interesting little interview with him where he explains where polls come from:

The reason why pollsters release results during elections is to demonstrate their accuracy so they can sell polling services to private/government firms after the election. Elections are a perfect way to demonstrate polling accuracy as projections can be checked against actual Election Day results.

Economic theory says that should cause polls to converge because it’s safer to compete on cost or service. Of course a market this small is bound to be full of fail, so instead we have polling companies competing on methodology. The punchline to this is that the Election Prediction Project has horrible methodology but generally does a pretty accurate job.