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There is less than a 0.2% chance of this happening:

Hellmuth does something savvy here. Once he sees Wiggins’ hand he knows that he has, roughly, two outs (plus the fractional outs assigned to running flushes and straights). By offering to run the hand more than twice he is essentially locking up more and more value for himself.

Imagine the extreme. Assuming only two outs, if the hand is run 100 times* Hellmuth will take 98% of the pot and Wiggins 2% (even though Wigs is “only” a six to one dog or something).

The actual outcome of the hand is the result of staggeringly bad luck — all Hellmuth is left with is the 25% he finagled out of Wiggins by running it four times against two”-ish” outs.

* Note: this is impossible as there aren’t enough cards in the deck — but just pretend.

Written by Jack

June 21st, 2010 at 11:47 pm

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