I am a contrarian. The best expression of my investment strategy comes from one of my heroes, Warren Buffett:

Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

Today, in the midst of the collapse of GM and Chrysler, The Ford Motor Company announced that it still doesn’t need a government bailout, despite losing over a billion dollars in the first three months of 2009. Ford’s message to the public: “There’s plenty more where that came from. Remember, we make the most popular vehicle EVAR.“

After a century of business maneuvering the Ford family seems to have finally crushed all of its domestic competition. GM and Chrysler must be allowed to fail gracefully — to the victor go the spoils — but that’s another argument. Right now I’m talking about how you can profit from this situation personally.

Make no mistake: I do not suggest buying stock in Ford. Taking small equity positions in large Western manufacturing concerns is economic seppuku. I’m talking about buying that much-ignored cousin of equity: Debt.

Now, the game is to be sold, not to be told. I’m not going in-depth until I’ve done the math on the strategy for myself and issued my market orders, if any. Suffice it to say that in general, in times of economic uncertainty, it is better to be a creditor — a bondholder — than an investor. This is the case because of the legally subordinate position of owners to lenders.

Chrysler, for example, is negotiating with its bondholders. Chrysler’s shareholders, on the other hand, will take whatever scraps Fiat and the unions let them have.

Ford Motors has demonstrated a striking resilience in this business climate. I’ve checked their cash reserves — the technical term for their liquidity position is, “bags and bags stuffed with cash”. They could research and produce an SUV powered by burning greenbacks is my point: They get money.

But, yes, earnings are negative and shareholder value is burning off. Bondholders, however, are paid nice and regularly. Moreover, if things get really bad, Ford can still go to the government for a bailout to spend on bond redemptions. That ship’s already sailed for GM and Chrylser.

Still more: The other auto makers are playing a perfect cat’s paw for Ford, beating down industry regulation and breaking powerful unions so that they can survive. Ford profits from these actions indirectly, and takes very little of the political heat.

Finally: Ford has a lot of apparent negatives-which-aren’t (high-cost, capital-intense operations in a shrinking market with which it is out-of-touch). These terrify people, and might incorrectly depress bond values because of illogical fears of default.

Again: The math is mine to do, but this situation warrants modeling.